Anthony Kila

The leading opposition party in Nigeria, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is, in these days, in the process of determining the individual that will bear its flag as presidential candidate and other candidates for the 2023 elections. The orthodox method of choosing candidates at all levels is to go through primary elections which we are told will take place in the last days of the month of May 2022. I say orthodox because, before and as an alternative way of choosing their candidates, parties can legitimately put in place a consensus and maybe even other methods in order to choose a candidate at any level.

Regardless of how the candidate for president is chosen, the PDP as the leading opposition party in the country has the duty of presenting a candidate that will present and represent an alternative to what the ruling party has to offer. In broad terms, the ruling party has the duty of convincing Nigerians that the way things are going is the right way and persuade them to let the good work continue. The opposition on the other hand, has the duty of convincing voters that things are not going so well and that there should be a change in government and direction of the country.

In all these, delegates and party members have the duty of ensuring that the candidate that will bear the flag of an opposition party is one that embodies the idea of change and is able to win votes of the voting population. To ensure this happens, delegates and party leaders need to ensure that they put forward a candidate that responds to the yearnings of the people. From all analyses and available objective surveys, it appears voters of the PDP and indeed many Nigerians yearn for two things. One is the ability to be totally different from the incumbent President and the other is the ability to pull the country together by uniting its people to chart a new course for progress and prosperity.

The system we run in Nigeria cannot truly and effectively be analyzed without bearing in mind that the country is divided in voting blocks. Roughly speaking, in the Nigeria of today, the candidate that can win will be that candidate that can bring a voting block to the table and then convince some other blocks to vote for him or her.

Rightly or wrongly, most Nigerians feel that the best alternative to the incumbent president must be a figure that when compared to the incumbent president is perceived as clearly younger, more energetic, committed to federalism and capable of managing a complex system in dire straits. Clearly Nigerians have been cured for the desire for a messiah. I also believe that the new president, to be successful in government and efficient for Nigeria, must have a good understanding of the law, experience of governance and a track record of visionary positions.

Now that the PDP has a clear list of all those that have submitted their forms for applying to be flag bearers of the party, we can now take positions on who we feel is more likely to be the best candidate. Of all the aspirants that have come forward from the North, Sokoto state governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal seems to fit the bill of who responds to what Nigerians are looking for in a candidate.
Tambuwal’s youthfulness is not a virtue he created himself, God made him young and it is not the fault of others that they are old. The favorable biological combination for Tambuwal is age and timing: Tambuwal is young at a time when the country is looking for a young person to lead the country. What Tambuwal has been able to strategically bring to the table is his ability to build a coalition that allows him to bring a block of votes strongly behind him as an aspirant. He has carefully created a regional block in his North West and he seems to have gotten the nod from many stakeholders in the north. The recent debacle of the Prof Ango Abdullahs consensus project and more importantly the rejection that it has elicited is a clear proof that many leaders in the North do not agree with and cannot fathom a list of northern candidates that is without Tambuwal.

For PDP to win, party leaders truly committed to taking over power need to rally round Tambuwal and help him to get more votes from and across other blocks in the country to lead the party to victory.

Join me if you can on twitter @anthonykila to continue these conversations. Anthony Kila is Centre Director at CIAPS Lagos.