Sunday Musings: On Pa Adebanjo and 2023

Powerful points by Afenifere Chieftain Ayo Adebanjo were made recently in a trending video, essentially a socio-political harangue on the choices for the presidency before the Nigerian People in 2023. Powerful but flawed in many ways.

Please come with me…

What political party does Chief Ayo Adebanjo actually belong to? It is that party that he should be speaking WITHIN, not BROADLY to specify to just any party HOW to select its own presidential flag bearer, strictly a party affair.
After all, Afenifere is NOT a political party, for if it was, with its UNBENDING principles, it could choose whoever it thinks rotationally fit, and sell him or her to the Nigerian electorate.
There have only been five democratically elected Presidents in Nigeria since 1979, in order: Shagari (NPN, Fulani), Obasanjo (PDP, Yoruba), Yaradua (PDP, Fulani), Jonathan (PDP, Ijaw), and Buhari (APC, Fulani). Presidential candidates are chosen by political parties, and presidents by popular mandate of the People. The rotational principle between North and South presidential candidacies is a fair one to expect. In that case, Pa Adebanjo has no basis to harangue PDP for its choice of a Northern candidate, nor APC that has chosen a Southern one. Any other political party – having not offered the country a president before – should be able to choose from any of the two regions without harangue.
At another level of rotational principle is the geo-zonal, and if he must, arising from Point #3 above, Chief Adebanjo could have harangued PDP if it did chose its candidate from the NE and NC geo-political zones, or APC for not choosing its candidate from the SW or SE. Any other harangue is unfair. However, the PDP, having rightly chosen from the NE, now chooses a Fulani again – like its previous candidate President Yar’adua. So in this situation, Adebanjo could have a case with the PDP for settling for a Fulani again, but no case whatsoever against the APC for settling on a Yoruba candidate for itself. However, it must be noted that NONE of these five previous/present presidents was actually elected strictly on their geo-political zone of origin or on ethnicity, but purely on extant political situations, so even a harangue along geo-zonal or ethnic lines has its limitations. (The exceptional case of Obasanjo will be considered below.)
Chief Adebanjo must recognize that Nigeria is not composed only of Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa, Fulani, Ijaw, Bini, Tiv, Efik ethnic groups but rather maybe three hundred plus other ethnic groups. Therefore to harangue based on the issue that it is the turn of a particular ethnic group to the Presidency is absurd. Even Tinubu has not argued that: Emilokan is not Awalokan. The peculiar case of Yoruba Obasanjo – contesting against Yoruba Falae in 1999 – gaining from the abortion of Yoruba MKO Abiola’s putative presidency – is a queer one: Obasanjo was not Yoruba’s choice then, rather an imposed choice for the Yoruba, but the People decided, and he was respected.
Every political party chooses candidates from its membership, and hopes that that candidate is in a best position to win. To require a party to choose its flag bearer based on national rotational principles – irrespective of whether a particular ethnic group is adequately represented in the party or not – is absurd. For example, to be more specific, Igbo profile is highest in APGA, next in PDP, and to a far less extent in APC, although it has been rising recently. Adebanjo, if he must, can harangue APGA and PDP more about Igbo candidacy before doing so on the APC. Delegate votes in primaries should also reflect those aspirations clearly, despite real and imagined financial inducements.
There is the odd harangue by Pa Adebanjo that APC should (in effect) voluntarily withdraw from the next presidential election because it has “failed woefully” since 2015. With all due respect, that is jejune, and every political party, including an incumbent in power, will present its balance sheet, mea culpas and all, and let the People decide in a weighted balance of Party, Candidate and Alternatives.So, yes Pa Adebanjo has every right to express his views, but in a democracy, it is the Parties that decide candidates first, then the People winner(s) later.There you have it.

Bolaji Aluko